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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

Brains & Noble

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₦7,500.00 /

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About this item

Seller assumes all responsibility for this listing. Item number: 6371

Last updated on Jun 13, 2026 05:11 PM

Item specifics

Category Brains & Noble > Non-fiction

Condition new

SKU BN-59440

Item description from the seller

Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we’re not very good at it.

In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock’s latest project – an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions – has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters.